In a major leap forward for global population mapping, WorldPop today are releasing its much-anticipated Global 2 (2015-2030) population dataset, a high-resolution, open-access trove of demographic data that provides a clearer picture of population distribution worldwide.
Spanning 242 countries and covering the years 2015 to 2030, the new dataset delivers 100-meter resolution estimates that are structured by age and sex, making it a powerful tool for governments, researchers, and humanitarian organisations alike.
Building on our previous 2000–2020 release, the Global 2 (2015-2030) population dataset introduces a suite of important upgrades. Key improvements include the use of the latest census data (circa 2020), an expanded library of geospatial indicators, and a refined inland water mask to better distinguish habitable land from bodies of water. A new settlement mapping method also incorporates satellite-mapped building footprints from organizations like Google and Microsoft, enhancing the dataset’s precision in urban and rural areas.
At the heart of Global 2 is a “top-down” random forest dasymetric modeling approach, which uses machine learning to intelligently distribute population data from coarse administrative areas down to fine 100m grid cells. The modelling, implemented in the statistical programming language, R, via the `popRF` package, draws on a variety of data layers known to be related to population distributions such as topography, land use, and road networks.
There are some limitations. Variability in the quality of national census data, potential inaccuracies in projections further beyond census years, and the exclusion of sudden demographic shifts from events like conflicts or disasters all present challenges. Users are advised to interpret the data cautiously, particularly when comparing small areas across time.
Despite these caveats, the Global 2 (2015-2030) population dataset represents a significant advance in how we visualise and understand population dynamics, a critical resource in an era of rapid urbanisation, climate change, and humanitarian need.
The full dataset is launched today (event registration) and is available now for free public access.
Register for The Power of Population Data: Introducing WorldPop Global 2015–2030 (Eventbrite)
