Publications
1.
Boo, Gianluca; Darin, Edith; Leasure, Douglas R; Dooley, Claire A; Chamberlain, Heather R; and Lázár, Attila N; Tschirhart, Kevin; Sinai, Cyrus; Hoff, Nicole A; Fuller, Trevon
High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1330, 2022.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Bayesian inference, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population
@article{nokey,
title = {High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints},
author = {Boo, Gianluca and Darin, Edith and Leasure, Douglas R and Dooley, Claire A and Chamberlain, Heather R and and Lázár, Attila N and Tschirhart, Kevin and Sinai, Cyrus and Hoff, Nicole A and Fuller, Trevon},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29094-x},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-03-14},
urldate = {2022-03-14},
journal = {Nature Communications},
volume = {13},
number = {1330},
abstract = {The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.},
keywords = {Bayesian inference, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.
2.
Lai, Shengjie; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Steele, Jessica; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W; Cunningham, Alexander D; Rogers, Grant; Koper, Patrycja; Woods, Dorothea; Bondarenko, Maksym; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Shi, Weifeng; and Tatem, Andrew J.
Global holiday datasets for understanding seasonal human mobility and population dynamics Journal Article
In: Scientific Data, vol. 9, no. 17, 2022.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: holidays, Mobility, Population
@article{nokey,
title = {Global holiday datasets for understanding seasonal human mobility and population dynamics},
author = {Lai, Shengjie and Sorichetta, Alessandro and Steele, Jessica and Ruktanonchai, Corrine W and Cunningham, Alexander D and Rogers, Grant and Koper, Patrycja and Woods, Dorothea and Bondarenko, Maksym and Ruktanonchai, Nick W and Shi, Weifeng and and Tatem, Andrew J.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01120-z},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-20},
urldate = {2022-01-20},
journal = {Scientific Data},
volume = {9},
number = {17},
abstract = {Public and school holidays have important impacts on population mobility and dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales, subsequently affecting the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and many socioeconomic activities. However, worldwide data on public and school holidays for understanding their changes across regions and years have not been assembled into a single, open-source and multitemporal dataset. To address this gap, an open access archive of data on public and school holidays in 2010–2019 across the globe at daily, weekly, and monthly timescales was constructed. Airline passenger volumes across 90 countries from 2010 to 2018 were also assembled to illustrate the usage of the holiday data for understanding the changing spatiotemporal patterns of population movements.},
keywords = {holidays, Mobility, Population},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Public and school holidays have important impacts on population mobility and dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales, subsequently affecting the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and many socioeconomic activities. However, worldwide data on public and school holidays for understanding their changes across regions and years have not been assembled into a single, open-source and multitemporal dataset. To address this gap, an open access archive of data on public and school holidays in 2010–2019 across the globe at daily, weekly, and monthly timescales was constructed. Airline passenger volumes across 90 countries from 2010 to 2018 were also assembled to illustrate the usage of the holiday data for understanding the changing spatiotemporal patterns of population movements.
3.
Palacios-Lopez, Daniela; Esch, Thomas; MacManus, Kytt; Marconcini, Mattia; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Yetman, Greg; Zeidler, Julian; Dech, Stefan; Tatem, Andrew J.; and Reinartz, Peter
In: Remote Sensing, vol. 14, no. 2, 2022, ISSN: 2072-4292.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Europe, Population, Random forest
@article{nokey,
title = {Towards an Improved Large-Scale Gridded Population Dataset: A Pan-European Study on the Integration of 3D Settlement Data into Population Modelling},
author = {Palacios-Lopez, Daniela and Esch, Thomas and MacManus, Kytt and Marconcini, Mattia and Sorichetta, Alessandro and Yetman, Greg and Zeidler, Julian and Dech, Stefan and Tatem, Andrew J. and and Reinartz, Peter},
doi = {10.3390/rs14020325},
issn = {2072-4292},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-20},
urldate = {2022-01-20},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
volume = {14},
number = {2},
abstract = {Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up environment (e.g., built-area and building footprint datasets), enhancing the quality, accuracy and spatial resolution of existing products. However, due to the consistent lack of vertical and functional information on the built-up environment, large-scale gridded population datasets that rely on existing built-up land proxies still report large errors of under- and overestimation, especially in areas with predominantly high-rise buildings or industrial/commercial areas, respectively. This research investigates, for the first time, the potential contributions of the new World Settlement Footprint—3D (WSF3D) dataset in the field of large-scale population modelling. First, we combined a Random Forest classifier with spatial metrics derived from the WSF3D to predict the industrial versus non-industrial use of settlement pixels at the Pan-European scale. We then examined the effects of including volume and settlement use information into frameworks of dasymetric population modelling. We found that the proposed classification method can predict industrial and non-industrial areas with overall accuracies and a kappa-coefficient of ~84% and 0.68, respectively. Additionally, we found that both, integrating volume and settlement use information considerably increased the accuracy of population estimates between 10% and 30% over commonly employed models (e.g., based on a binary settlement mask as input), mainly by eliminating systematic large overestimations in industrial/commercial areas. While the proposed method shows strong promise for overcoming some of the main limitations in large-scale population modelling, future research should focus on improving the quality of the WFS3D dataset and the classification method alike, to avoid the false detection of built-up settlements and to reduce misclassification errors of industrial and high-rise buildings.},
keywords = {Europe, Population, Random forest},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up environment (e.g., built-area and building footprint datasets), enhancing the quality, accuracy and spatial resolution of existing products. However, due to the consistent lack of vertical and functional information on the built-up environment, large-scale gridded population datasets that rely on existing built-up land proxies still report large errors of under- and overestimation, especially in areas with predominantly high-rise buildings or industrial/commercial areas, respectively. This research investigates, for the first time, the potential contributions of the new World Settlement Footprint—3D (WSF3D) dataset in the field of large-scale population modelling. First, we combined a Random Forest classifier with spatial metrics derived from the WSF3D to predict the industrial versus non-industrial use of settlement pixels at the Pan-European scale. We then examined the effects of including volume and settlement use information into frameworks of dasymetric population modelling. We found that the proposed classification method can predict industrial and non-industrial areas with overall accuracies and a kappa-coefficient of ~84% and 0.68, respectively. Additionally, we found that both, integrating volume and settlement use information considerably increased the accuracy of population estimates between 10% and 30% over commonly employed models (e.g., based on a binary settlement mask as input), mainly by eliminating systematic large overestimations in industrial/commercial areas. While the proposed method shows strong promise for overcoming some of the main limitations in large-scale population modelling, future research should focus on improving the quality of the WFS3D dataset and the classification method alike, to avoid the false detection of built-up settlements and to reduce misclassification errors of industrial and high-rise buildings.
4.
Nieves, Jeremiah J.; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Linard, Catherine; Bondarenko, Maksym; Steele, Jessica E.; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Carioli, Alessandra; Clarke, Donna J.; Esch, Thomas; Tatem, Andrew J.
Annually modelling built-settlements between remotely-sensed observations using relative changes in subnational populations and lights at night Journal Article
In: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, vol. 80, pp. 101444, 2020, ISSN: 0198-9715.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Built-settlements, Dasymetric modelling, Population, Random forest, Spatial growth, Urban features
@article{NIEVES2020101444,
title = {Annually modelling built-settlements between remotely-sensed observations using relative changes in subnational populations and lights at night},
author = {Jeremiah J. Nieves and Alessandro Sorichetta and Catherine Linard and Maksym Bondarenko and Jessica E. Steele and Forrest R. Stevens and Andrea E. Gaughan and Alessandra Carioli and Donna J. Clarke and Thomas Esch and Andrew J. Tatem},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019897151930290X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101444},
issn = {0198-9715},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems},
volume = {80},
pages = {101444},
abstract = {Mapping urban features/human built-settlement extents at the annual time step has a wide variety of applications in demography, public health, sustainable development, and many other fields. Recently, while more multitemporal urban features/human built-settlement datasets have become available, issues still exist in remotely-sensed imagery due to spatial and temporal coverage, adverse atmospheric conditions, and expenses involved in producing such datasets. Remotely-sensed annual time-series of urban/built-settlement extents therefore do not yet exist and cover more than specific local areas or city-based regions. Moreover, while a few high-resolution global datasets of urban/built-settlement extents exist for key years, the observed date often deviates many years from the assigned one. These challenges make it difficult to increase temporal coverage while maintaining high fidelity in the spatial resolution. Here we describe an interpolative and flexible modelling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents. We use a combined technique of random forest and spatio-temporal dasymetric modelling with open source subnational data to produce annual 100 m × 100 m resolution binary built-settlement datasets in four test countries located in varying environmental and developmental contexts for test periods of five-year gaps. We find that in the majority of years, across all study areas, the model correctly identified between 85 and 99% of pixels that transition to built-settlement. Additionally, with few exceptions, the model substantially out performed a model that gave every pixel equal chance of transitioning to built-settlement in each year. This modelling framework shows strong promise for filling gaps in cross-sectional urban features/built-settlement datasets derived from remotely-sensed imagery, provides a base upon which to create urban future/built-settlement extent projections, and enables further exploration of the relationships between urban/built-settlement area and population dynamics.},
keywords = {Built-settlements, Dasymetric modelling, Population, Random forest, Spatial growth, Urban features},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Mapping urban features/human built-settlement extents at the annual time step has a wide variety of applications in demography, public health, sustainable development, and many other fields. Recently, while more multitemporal urban features/human built-settlement datasets have become available, issues still exist in remotely-sensed imagery due to spatial and temporal coverage, adverse atmospheric conditions, and expenses involved in producing such datasets. Remotely-sensed annual time-series of urban/built-settlement extents therefore do not yet exist and cover more than specific local areas or city-based regions. Moreover, while a few high-resolution global datasets of urban/built-settlement extents exist for key years, the observed date often deviates many years from the assigned one. These challenges make it difficult to increase temporal coverage while maintaining high fidelity in the spatial resolution. Here we describe an interpolative and flexible modelling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents. We use a combined technique of random forest and spatio-temporal dasymetric modelling with open source subnational data to produce annual 100 m × 100 m resolution binary built-settlement datasets in four test countries located in varying environmental and developmental contexts for test periods of five-year gaps. We find that in the majority of years, across all study areas, the model correctly identified between 85 and 99% of pixels that transition to built-settlement. Additionally, with few exceptions, the model substantially out performed a model that gave every pixel equal chance of transitioning to built-settlement in each year. This modelling framework shows strong promise for filling gaps in cross-sectional urban features/built-settlement datasets derived from remotely-sensed imagery, provides a base upon which to create urban future/built-settlement extent projections, and enables further exploration of the relationships between urban/built-settlement area and population dynamics.
5.
Weber, Eric M.; Seaman, Vincent Y.; Stewart, Robert N.; Bird, Tomas J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; McKee, Jacob J.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.; Moehl, Jessica J.; Reith, Andrew E.
Census-independent population mapping in northern Nigeria Journal Article
In: Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 204, pp. 786-798, 2018, ISSN: 0034-4257.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Demographics, Nigeria, Polio, Population, Settlement mapping
@article{WEBER2018786,
title = {Census-independent population mapping in northern Nigeria},
author = {Eric M. Weber and Vincent Y. Seaman and Robert N. Stewart and Tomas J. Bird and Andrew J. Tatem and Jacob J. McKee and Budhendra L. Bhaduri and Jessica J. Moehl and Andrew E. Reith},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717304364},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.09.024},
issn = {0034-4257},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-01-01},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
volume = {204},
pages = {786-798},
abstract = {Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areas within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. Used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.},
keywords = {Demographics, Nigeria, Polio, Population, Settlement mapping},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areas within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. Used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.
6.
Tatem, Andrew J.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Hay, Simon I.
Defining approaches to settlement mapping for public health management in Kenya using medium spatial resolution satellite imagery Journal Article
In: Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 93, no. 1, pp. 42-52, 2004, ISSN: 0034-4257.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: JERS-1 SAR, Kenya, Landsat TM, Neural network, Population, Public health, Settlement mapping, Texture
@article{TATEM200442,
title = {Defining approaches to settlement mapping for public health management in Kenya using medium spatial resolution satellite imagery},
author = {Andrew J. Tatem and Abdisalan M. Noor and Simon I. Hay},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425704001944},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.06.014},
issn = {0034-4257},
year = {2004},
date = {2004-01-01},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
volume = {93},
number = {1},
pages = {42-52},
abstract = {This paper presents an appraisal of satellite imagery types and texture measures for identifying and delineating settlements in four Districts of Kenya chosen to represent the variation in human ecology across the country. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery of the four districts were obtained and supervised per-pixel classifications of image combinations tested for their efficacy at settlement delineation. Additional data layers including human population census data, land cover, and locations of medical facilities, villages, schools and market centres were used for training site identification and validation. For each district, the most accurate approach was determined through the best correspondence with known settlement and non-settlement pixels. The resulting settlement maps will be used in combination with census data to produce medium spatial resolution population maps for improved public health planning in Kenya.},
keywords = {JERS-1 SAR, Kenya, Landsat TM, Neural network, Population, Public health, Settlement mapping, Texture},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper presents an appraisal of satellite imagery types and texture measures for identifying and delineating settlements in four Districts of Kenya chosen to represent the variation in human ecology across the country. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery of the four districts were obtained and supervised per-pixel classifications of image combinations tested for their efficacy at settlement delineation. Additional data layers including human population census data, land cover, and locations of medical facilities, villages, schools and market centres were used for training site identification and validation. For each district, the most accurate approach was determined through the best correspondence with known settlement and non-settlement pixels. The resulting settlement maps will be used in combination with census data to produce medium spatial resolution population maps for improved public health planning in Kenya.
