Publications
Han, Shasha; Zhang, Ting; Lyu, Yan; Lai, Shengjie; Dai, Peixi; Zheng, Jiandong; Yang, Weizhong; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Luzhao
Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference Journal Article
In: Engineering, 2022, ISSN: 2095-8099.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: covid-19, influenza, NPIs
@article{nokey,
title = {Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference},
author = {Shasha Han and Ting Zhang and Yan Lyu and Shengjie Lai and Peixi Dai and Jiandong Zheng and Weizhong Yang and Xiao-Hua Zhou and Luzhao Feng},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011},
issn = {2095-8099},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-02-02},
urldate = {2022-02-02},
journal = {Engineering},
abstract = {Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza’s unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%–35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%–6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6%–2.8%). In 2020–2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3–19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2–14.0, of which 79.8%–98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019–2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4–14.4) and 10.2 (7.2–13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.},
keywords = {covid-19, influenza, NPIs},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Han, Shasha; Zhang, Ting; Lyu, Yan; Lai, Shengjie; Dai, Peixi; Zheng, Jiandong; Yang, Weizhong; Zhou, Xiaohua; Feng, Luzhao
Methods and Applications: The Incoming Influenza Season — China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022 Journal Article
In: China CDC Weekly, vol. 3, no. 49, pp. 1039, 2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: influenza, Mobility, NPIs, Predictive clustering
@article{nokey,
title = {Methods and Applications: The Incoming Influenza Season — China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022},
author = {Han, Shasha and Zhang, Ting and Lyu, Yan and Lai, Shengjie and Dai, Peixi and Zheng, Jiandong and Yang, Weizhong and Zhou, Xiaohua and Feng, Luzhao},
doi = {10.46234/ccdcw2021.253},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-12-03},
urldate = {2021-12-03},
journal = {China CDC Weekly},
volume = {3},
number = {49},
pages = {1039},
abstract = {Seasonal influenza activity has declined globally since the widespread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. There has been scarce information to understand the future dynamics of influenza — and under different hypothesis on relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in particular — after the disruptions to seasonal patterns.
Methods
We collected data from public sources in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and forecasted the influenza dynamics in the incoming 2021–2022 season under different NPIs. We considered Northern China and Southern China separately, due to the sharp difference in the patterns of seasonal influenza. For the United Kingdom, data were collected for England only.
Results
Compared to the epidemics in 2017–2019, longer and blunter influenza outbreaks could occur should NPIs be fully lifted, with percent positivity varying from 10.5 to 18.6 in the studying regions. The rebounds would be smaller if the mask-wearing intervention continued or the international mobility stayed low, but sharper if the mask-wearing intervention was lifted in the middle of influenza season. Further, influenza activity could stay low under a much less stringent mask-wearing intervention coordinated with influenza vaccination.
Conclusions
The results added to our understandings of future influenza dynamics after the global decline during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In light of the uncertainty on the incoming circulation strains and the relatively low negative impacts of mask wearing on society, our findings suggested that wearing mask could be considered as an accompanying mitigation measure in influenza prevention and control, especially for seasons after long periods of low-exposure to influenza viruses.},
keywords = {influenza, Mobility, NPIs, Predictive clustering},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Methods
We collected data from public sources in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and forecasted the influenza dynamics in the incoming 2021–2022 season under different NPIs. We considered Northern China and Southern China separately, due to the sharp difference in the patterns of seasonal influenza. For the United Kingdom, data were collected for England only.
Results
Compared to the epidemics in 2017–2019, longer and blunter influenza outbreaks could occur should NPIs be fully lifted, with percent positivity varying from 10.5 to 18.6 in the studying regions. The rebounds would be smaller if the mask-wearing intervention continued or the international mobility stayed low, but sharper if the mask-wearing intervention was lifted in the middle of influenza season. Further, influenza activity could stay low under a much less stringent mask-wearing intervention coordinated with influenza vaccination.
Conclusions
The results added to our understandings of future influenza dynamics after the global decline during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In light of the uncertainty on the incoming circulation strains and the relatively low negative impacts of mask wearing on society, our findings suggested that wearing mask could be considered as an accompanying mitigation measure in influenza prevention and control, especially for seasons after long periods of low-exposure to influenza viruses.