New Study Warns of Sharp Rise in Heat-Related Deaths Across Europe Due to Climate Change

A new collaborative study co-authored by Principal Research Fellow Dr Shengjie Lai, has issued a stark warning about the growing threat of heat-related mortality in Europe, driven by intensifying climate change and rapid population aging. Using WorldPop gridded population data, the research team found that between 2010 and 2022, over 368,000 deaths were linked to extreme heat, with older adults (65+) accounting for nearly 90% of fatalities. The most affected countries were Italy, Spain, Greece, France, and Germany.

The study highlights that Europe, warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, is especially vulnerable due to a high proportion of elderly residents and poor summer cooling in homes. It introduces a novel model using humid heat indicators and various types of heat extremes, including day-night compound events, which are particularly lethal for the elderly.

Looking ahead, projections show heat-related deaths could rise by over 100 deaths per million people per degree of global warming. If temperatures exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels, climate change alone could drive up to 97% of the increase in mortality. Countries in Western and Eastern Europe, including Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, face the highest risks.

The study warns that even with substantial physiological and socioeconomic adaptations, current strategies will fall short. It calls for urgent, integrated policies that prioritize the elderly and strengthen resilience across all regions of Europe.