Disappearing People: The Future of Public Policy Depends on Co-Development in Demographic Data 

In an article published today in Science¹, world-leading geospatial data experts at WorldPop (University of Southampton, UK) and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN, Columbia University, USA) declare a global crisis in demographic data collection is quietly undermining public policy, service delivery, and equitable governance. At the heart of this predicament lies the failing ability of nations to conduct accurate and timely censuses – a vital tool for understanding population size, structure, and needs. As international support dwindles and confidence in institutions erodes, the author’s, WorldPop’s Dr Jess Espey and Professor Andy Tatem, and CIESIN’s Dr Dana R Thompson, warn that the only path forward is through co-development: collaborative efforts that blend technology, transparency, and local partnerships. 

The situation is urgent. As highlighted during a recent UN Statistical Commission meeting, the number of countries able to conduct and publish reliable census data is in decline². By mid-2024, nearly a quarter of the world’s population was living in countries that had not yet released results from the 2020 census round. Even when censuses are completed, undercounts are growing, especially among minorities and children. And this crisis is affecting low- and middle-income countries particularly hard. An estimated one in three Africans were likely not counted in the most recent census round. 

Without accurate demographic data, governments cannot effectively allocate resources, plan infrastructure, or respond to crises like pandemics or natural disasters. But the problem goes deeper than numbers. An absence of trusted data contributes to political invisibility for entire communities, locking them out of representation and access to essential services. 

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted census operations worldwide, but the crisis is intensified by declining government budgets, technical deficiencies, and falling public trust. And vital international support is disappearing. The ending of the US-funded Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) earlier this year leaves a deep hole in global health and development statistics. Reducing aid budgets from other nations further threaten the ability of low- and middle-income countries to provide demographic insights.

Yet within this crisis, promising innovations and partnerships are evolving. Satellite imagery, AI-generated building maps, and statistical modelling are enhancing data in hard-to-reach or conflict-affected areas.

But the authors stress that technology alone is not the solution. Building durable, inclusive systems requires co-development: governments, international organizations, researchers, and the private sector must step out of their silos and work together to create systems tailored to local conditions, that can be explained locally by local experts. WorldPop have a wealth of experience in this area³, and projects like the POPGRID Data Collaborative⁴ and the leadership of national bodies like the Philippines’ National Statistical Authority⁵, show how coordinated efforts can succeed.