A new study by an international team led WorldPop postgraduate researcher Qianwen Duan has revealed a significant “urban exodus” across the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing high-resolution data from 35 countries, the research team found that while many people fled dense city centres for rural or suburban areas, these shifts varied significantly based on a nation’s level of development.
The research, published in npj Urban Sustainability, used anonymised and aggregated mobile location data from Meta to track population movements between 2020 and 2022. This allowed the team to monitor near-real-time shifts that traditional census data often fails to capture.
Researchers from the WorldPop group and the School of Geography and Environmental Science identified two distinct phases of the pandemic. During the early response phase, more than 70% of the countries studied showed a trend of people moving away from highly urbanised areas. However, as the pandemic eased, roughly 20% of these urban-to-rural shifts reversed, with many people returning to city centres.
The study highlights a clear divide between nations. Very high Human Development Index countries experienced more sustained urban depopulation. In contrast, low- and middle-development countries largely continued their trajectories of urban growth, as cities remained the primary hubs for jobs and services.
Qianwen Duan, lead author at the University of Southampton, comments: “Our findings reveal a potential misalignment between where people relocate and existing urban infrastructure. As development continues worldwide, more countries are likely to experience similar shifts in settlement preference, meaning we need adaptive planning strategies to address the associated sustainability challenges.”
The researchers stress the urgency of using accurate, high-resolution, and up-to-date data to inform decision-making in a rapidly changing world. A clear understanding of where people are living – and how populations are shifting over time – is essential for effective humanitarian and development outcomes. This includes supporting evidence-based infrastructure planning, anticipating and responding to demographic change in rural areas, strengthening disaster preparedness and relief efforts, and ensuring that resources and essential services are allocated efficiently and equitably during times of crisis.
This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the ESRC South Coast Doctoral Training Partnership.
- The study, COVID-19 and urban exodus: diverging population redistribution patterns across countries from 2020 to 2022, is published in npj Urban Sustainability.
- WorldPop is a research group based at the University of Southampton specialising in high-resolution mapping of global populations.
- For further information or to interview Professor Tatem or Qianwen Duan, please contact the University of Southampton Press Office (+44 23 8059 3212).
Image credit: Moving Daze, Kayla Allen, 2012 CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
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