Publications

Total: 126
The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region
Nature Communications 8, Article number: 15585 (25 May 2017).
Author(s): Saki Takahashi, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Matthew J. Ferrari, Andrew J. Tatem & Justin Lessler.
Type: application. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15585.

Abstract: Expanded access to measles vaccination was among the most successful public health interventions of recent decades. All WHO regions currently target measles elimination by 2020, yet continued measles circulation makes that goal seem elusive. Using Demographic and Health Surveys with generalized additive models, we quantify spatial patterns of measles vaccination in ten contiguous countries in the African Great Lakes region between 2009–2014. Seven countries have 'coldspots' where vaccine coverage is below the WHO target of 80%. Over 14 million children under 5 years of age live in coldspots across the region, and a total of 8–12 million children are unvaccinated. Spatial patterns of vaccination do not map directly onto sub-national administrative units and transnational coldspots exist. Clustering of low vaccination areas may allow for pockets of susceptibility that sustain circulation despite high overall coverage. Targeting at-risk areas and transnational coordination are likely required to eliminate measles in the region.
Link to paper


Global funding trends for malaria research in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic analysis.
The Lancet Global Health , Volume 5 , Issue 8 , e772 - e781.
Author(s): Michael G Head, Sian Goss, Yann Gelister, Victor Alegana, Rebecca J Brown, Stuart C Clarke, Joseph R A Fitchett, Rifat Atun, J Anthony G Scott, Marie-Louise Newell, Sabu S Padmadas, Andrew J Tatem.
Type: application. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30245-0.

Abstract: Expanded access to measles vaccination was among the most successful public health interventions of recent decades. All WHO regions currently target measles elimination by 2020, yet continued measles circulation makes that goal seem elusive. Using Demographic and Health Surveys with generalized additive models, we quantify spatial patterns of measles vaccination in ten contiguous countries in the African Great Lakes region between 2009–2014. Seven countries have 'coldspots' where vaccine coverage is below the WHO target of 80%. Over 14 million children under 5 years of age live in coldspots across the region, and a total of 8–12 million children are unvaccinated. Spatial patterns of vaccination do not map directly onto sub-national administrative units and transnational coldspots exist. Clustering of low vaccination areas may allow for pockets of susceptibility that sustain circulation despite high overall coverage. Targeting at-risk areas and transnational coordination are likely required to eliminate measles in the region.
Link to paper


Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead
Proceedings of the Royal Society B , 16 August 2017 Volume 284, issue 1860 .
Author(s): C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Katharine S. Walter, Amy Wesolowski, Caroline O. Buckee, Elena Shevliakova, Andrew J. Tatem, William R. Boos, Daniel M. Weinberger, Virginia E. Pitzer
Type: application. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0901.

Abstract: EClimate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.
Link to paper


Travel patterns and demographic characteristics of malaria cases in Swaziland, 2010–2014
Malaria Journal 24 May 2017 16:359,.
Author(s): Natalia Tejedor-Garavi, Nomcebo Dlamini, Deepa Pindolia, Adam Soble, Nick W. Ruktanonchai, Victor Alegana, Arnaud Le Menach, Nyasatu Ntshalintshali, Bongani Dlamini, David L. Smith, Andrew J. Tatem and Simon Kunene.
Type: application. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-017-2004-8.

Abstract: As Swaziland progresses towards national malaria elimination, the importation of parasites into receptive areas becomes increasingly important. Imported infections have the potential to instigate local transmission and sustain local parasite reservoirs.
Link to paper