Publications

Total: 140
National and sub-national variation in patterns of febrile case management in sub-Saharan Africa
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 4994.
Author(s): Victor A. Alegana, Joseph Maina, Paul O. Ouma, Peter M. Macharia, Jim Wright, Peter M. Atkinson, Emelda A. Okiro, Robert W. Snow & Andrew J. Tatem.
Type: method. Year: 2018
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07536-9.

Abstract: Given national healthcare coverage gaps, understanding treatment-seeking behaviour for fever is crucial for the management of childhood illness and to reduce deaths. Here, we conduct a modelling study triangulating household survey data for fever in children under the age of five years with georeferenced public health facility databases (n = 86,442 facilities) in 29 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, to estimate the probability of seeking treatment for fever at public facilities. A Bayesian item response theory framework is used to estimate this probability based on reported fever episodes, treatment choice, residence, and estimated travel-time to the nearest public-sector health facility. Findings show inter- and intra-country variation, with the likelihood of seeking treatment for fever less than 50% in 16 countries. Results highlight the need to invest in public healthcare and related databases. The variation in public sector use illustrates the need to include such modelling in future infectious disease burden estimation.
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Innovation to impact in spatial epidemiology
BMC Medicine 2018 16:209 .
Author(s): Andrew J. Tatem
Type: method. Year: 2018
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1205-5.

Abstract: Spatial epidemiology is a rapidly advancing field, pushing our abilities to measure, monitor and map pathogens at increasingly finer spatiotemporal scales. However, these scales often do not align with the abilities of control programmes to act at them, building a disconnect between academia and implementation. Efforts are being made to feed innovations into government, build spatial data skills, and strengthen links between disease control programmes and universities, yet work remains to be done if goals for disease control, elimination and 'leaving no one behind' are to be met.
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Fluctuations in anthropogenic nighttime lights from satellite imagery for five cities in Niger and Nigeria
Scientific Data volume 5, Article number: 180256 (2018) .
Author(s): Nita Bharti & Andrew J. Tatem.
Type: method. Year: 2018
DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.256.

Abstract: Dynamic measures of human populations are critical for global health management but are often overlooked, largely because they are difficult to quantify. Measuring human population dynamics can be prohibitively expensive in under-resourced communities. Satellite imagery can provide measurements of human populations, past and present, to complement public health analyses and interventions. We used anthropogenic illumination from publicly accessible, serial satellite nighttime images as a quantifiable proxy for seasonal population variation in five urban areas in Niger and Nigeria. We identified population fluxes as the mechanistic driver of regional seasonal measles outbreaks. Our data showed 1) urban illumination fluctuated seasonally, 2) corresponding population fluctuations were sufficient to drive seasonal measles outbreaks, and 3) overlooking these fluctuations during vaccination activities resulted in below-target coverage levels, incapable of halting transmission of the virus. We designed immunization solutions capable of achieving above-target coverage of both resident and mobile populations. Here, we provide detailed data on brightness from 2000–2005 for 5 cities in Niger and Nigeria and detailed methodology for application to other populations.
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Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 12(11): e0006743..
Author(s): Shengjie Lai, Michael A. Johansson, Wenwu Yin, Nicola A. Wardrop, Willem G. van Panhuis, Amy Wesolowski, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Isaac I. Bogoch, Dylain Kain, Aidan Findlater, Marc Choisy, Zhuojie Huang, Di Mu, Yu Li, Yangni He, Qiulan Chen, Juan Yang, Kamran Khan , Andrew J. Tatem , Hongjie Yu.
Type: method. Year: 2018
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006743.

Abstract: Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005–15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.
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