Publications

Total: 126
WorldPop, open data for spatial demography
Scientific Data 4, Article number: 170004 (2017).
Author(s): Andrew J. Tatem
Type: method. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.4.

Abstract: High resolution, contemporary data on human population distributions, their characteristics and changes over time are a prerequisite for the accurate measurement of the impacts of population growth, for monitoring changes and for planning interventions. WorldPop aims to meet these needs through the provision of detailed and open access spatial demographic datasets built using transparent approaches. The Scientific Data WorldPop collection brings together descriptor papers on these datasets and is introduced here.
Link to paper


High resolution global gridded data for use in population studies
Scientific Data 4, Article number: 170001 (2017) .
Author(s): Christopher T. Lloyd, Alessandro Sorichetta & Andrew J. Tatem
Type: method. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.1.

Abstract: Recent years have seen substantial growth in openly available satellite and other geospatial data layers, which represent a range of metrics relevant to global human population mapping at fine spatial scales. The specifications of such data differ widely and therefore the harmonisation of data layers is a prerequisite to constructing detailed and contemporary spatial datasets which accurately describe population distributions. Such datasets are vital to measure impacts of population growth, monitor change, and plan interventions. To this end the WorldPop Project has produced an open access archive of 3 and 30 arc-second resolution gridded data. Four tiled raster datasets form the basis of the archive: (i) Viewfinder Panoramas topography clipped to Global ADMinistrative area (GADM) coastlines; (ii) a matching ISO 3166 country identification grid; (iii) country area; (iv) and slope layer. Further layers include transport networks, landcover, nightlights, precipitation, travel time to major cities, and waterways. Datasets and production methodology are here described. The archive can be downloaded both from the WorldPop Dataverse Repository and the WorldPop Project website.
Link to paper


Mapping poverty using mobile phone and satellite data
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, February 2017 Volume 14, issue 127..
Author(s): Jessica E. Steele, Pål Roe Sundsøy, Carla Pezzulo, Victor A. Alegana, Tomas J. Bird, Joshua Blumenstock, Johannes Bjelland, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, Asif M. Iqbal, Khandakar N. Hadiuzzaman, Xin Lu, Erik Wetter, Andrew J. Tatem, Linus Bengtsson
Type: method. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0690.

Abstract: Poverty is one of the most important determinants of adverse health outcomes globally, a major cause of societal instability and one of the largest causes of lost human potential. Traditional approaches to measuring and targeting poverty rely heavily on census data, which in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unavailable or out-of-date. Alternate measures are needed to complement and update estimates between censuses. This study demonstrates how public and private data sources that are commonly available for LMICs can be used to provide novel insight into the spatial distribution of poverty. We evaluate the relative value of modelling three traditional poverty measures using aggregate data from mobile operators and widely available geospatial data. Taken together, models combining these data sources provide the best predictive power (highest r2 = 0.78) and lowest error, but generally models employing mobile data only yield comparable results, offering the potential to measure poverty more frequently and at finer granularity. Stratifying models into urban and rural areas highlights the advantage of using mobile data in urban areas and different data in different contexts. The findings indicate the possibility to estimate and continually monitor poverty rates at high spatial resolution in countries with limited capacity to support traditional methods of data collection.
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Exploring the high-resolution mapping of gender-disaggregated development indicators.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2017).
Author(s): C. Bosco, V. Alegana, T. Bird, C. Pezzulo, L. Bengtsson, A. Sorichetta, J. Steele, G. Hornby, C. Ruktanonchai, N. Ruktanonchai, E. Wetter, A. J. Tatem
Type: method. Year: 2017
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0825.

Abstract: Improved understanding of geographical variation and inequity in health status, wealth and access to resources within countries is increasingly being recognized as central to meeting development goals. Development and health indicators assessed at national or subnational scale can often conceal important inequities, with the rural poor often least well represented. The ability to target limited resources is fundamental, especially in an international context where funding for health and development comes under pressure. This has recently prompted the exploration of the potential of spatial interpolation methods based on geolocated clusters from national household survey data for the high-resolution mapping of features such as population age structures, vaccination coverage and access to sanitation. It remains unclear, however, how predictable these different factors are across different settings, variables and between demographic groups. Here we test the accuracy of spatial interpolation methods in producing gender-disaggregated high-resolution maps of the rates of literacy, stunting and the use of modern contraceptive methods from a combination of geolocated demographic and health surveys cluster data and geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical and machine learning modelling methods were tested across four low-income countries and varying gridded environmental and socio-economic covariate datasets to build 1×1 km spatial resolution maps with uncertainty estimates. Results show the potential of the approach in producing high-resolution maps of key gender-disaggregated socio-economic indicators, with explained variance through cross-validation being as high as 74–75% for female literacy in Nigeria and Kenya, and in the 50–70% range for many other variables. However, substantial variations by both country and variable were seen, with many variables showing poor mapping accuracies in the range of 2–30% explained variance using both geostatistical and machine learning approaches. The analyses offer a robust basis for the construction of timely maps with levels of detail that support geographically stratified decision-making and the monitoring of progress towards development goals. However, the great variability in results between countries and variables highlights the challenges in applying these interpolation methods universally across multiple countries, and the importance of validation and quantifying uncertainty if this is undertaken.
Link to paper