@article{nokey,

title = {Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States},

author = {Feng, Luzhao and Zhang, Ting and Wang, Qing and Xie, Yiran and Peng, Zhibin and Zheng, Jiandong and Qin, Ying and Zhang, Muli and Lai, Shengjie and Wang, Dayan and Feng, Zijian and Li, Zhongjie and and Gao, George F.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-31},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {12},

number = {3249},

issue = {1},

abstract = {Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019–2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011–2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%–87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%–87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%–80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019–2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment},

author = {Amanda E. Bates and Richard B. Primack and Brandy S. Biggar and Tomas J. Bird and Mary E. Clinton and Rylan J. Command and Cerren Richards and Marc Shellard and Nathan R. Geraldi and ... Shengjie Lai and and others.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109175},

issn = {0006-3207},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-21},

urldate = {2021-05-21},

journal = {Biological Conservation},

volume = {263},

abstract = {The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Summary and prospect of early warning models and systems for infectious disease outbreaks},

author = {Lai, SJ and Feng, LZ and Leng, ZW and Lyu, X and Li, RY and Yin, L and Luo, W and Li, ZJ and Lan, YJ and Yang, WZ},

doi = {10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210512-00391},

issn = {0254-6450},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-12},

journal = {Chinese Journal of Epidemiology},

volume = {42},

number = {8},

pages = {1330—1335},

abstract = {This paper summarizes the basic principles and models of early warning for infectious disease outbreaks, introduces the early warning systems for infectious disease based on different data sources and their applications, and discusses the application potential of big data and their analysing techniques, which have been studied and used in the prevention and control of COVID-19 pandemic, including internet inquiry, social media, mobile positioning, in the early warning of infectious diseases in order to provide reference for the establishment of an intelligent early warning mechanism and platform for infectious diseases based on multi-source big data.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic},

author = {Shengjie Lai and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Alessandra Carioli and Corrine W. Ruktanonchai and Jessica R. Floyd and Olivia Prosper and Chi Zhang and Xiangjun Du and Weizhong Yang and Andrew J. Tatem},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-07},

journal = {Engineering},

volume = {7},

number = {7},

pages = {914-923},

abstract = {Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79–116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhoea in China},

author = {Wang, Li-Ping and Zhou, Shi-Xia and Wang, Xin and Lu, Qing-Bin and Shi, Lu-Sha and Ren, Xiang and Zhang, Hai-Yang and Wang, Yi-Fei and Lin, Sheng-Hong and Zhang, Cui-Hong and Geng, Meng-Jie and Zhang, Xiao-Ai and Li, Jun and Zhao, Shi-Wen and Yi, Zhi-Gang and Chen, Xiao and Yang, Zuo-Sen and Meng, Lei and Wang, Xin-Hua and Liu, Ying-Le and Cui, Ai-Li and Lai, Sheng-Jie and and others},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22551-z},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-29},

urldate = {2021-04-29},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {12},

number = {2464},

issue = {1},

abstract = {National-based prospective surveillance of all-age patients with acute diarrhea was conducted in China between 2009‒2018. Here we report the etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of the 152,792 eligible patients enrolled in this analysis. Rotavirus A and norovirus are the two leading viral pathogens detected in the patients, followed by adenovirus and astrovirus. Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and nontyphoidal Salmonella are the two leading bacterial pathogens, followed by Shigella and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Patients aged <5 years had higher overall positive rate of viral pathogens, while bacterial pathogens were more common in patients aged 18‒45 years. A joinpoint analysis revealed the age-specific positivity rate and how this varied for individual pathogens. Our findings fill crucial gaps of how the distributions of enteropathogens change across China in patients with diarrhea. This allows enhanced identification of the predominant diarrheal pathogen candidates for diagnosis in clinical practice and more targeted application of prevention and control measures.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Seasonal association between viral causes of hospitalised acute lower respiratory infections and meteorological factors in China: a retrospective study},

author = {Xu, Bing and Wang, Jinfeng and Li, Zhongjie and Xu, Chengdong and Liao, Yilan and Hu, Maogui and Yang, Jing and Lai, Shengjie and Wang, Liping and Yang, Weizhong },

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30297-7},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-11},

urldate = {2021-03-11},

journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},

volume = {5},

issue = {3},

pages = {e154-e163},

abstract = {Acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) caused by respiratory viruses are common and persistent infectious diseases worldwide and in China, which have pronounced seasonal patterns. Meteorological factors have important roles in the seasonality of some major viruses, especially respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus. Our aim was to identify the dominant meteorological factors and to model their effects on common respiratory viruses in different regions of China. We analysed monthly virus data on patients hospitalised with ALRI from 81 sentinel hospitals in 22 provinces in mainland China from Jan 1, 2009, to Sept 30, 2013. We considered seven common respiratory viruses: RSV, influenza virus, human parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, human bocavirus, and human coronavirus. Meteorological data of the same period were used to analyse relationships between virus seasonality and seven meteorological factors according to region (southern vs northern China). The geographical detector method was used to quantify the explanatory power of each meteorological factor, individually and interacting in pairs, on the respiratory viruses. 28,369 hospitalised patients with ALRI were tested, 10,387 (36·6%) of whom were positive for at least one virus, including RSV (4091 [32·0%] patients), influenza virus (2665 [20·8%]), human parainfluenza virus (2185 [17·1%]), adenovirus (1478 [11·6%]), human bocavirus (1120 [8·8%]), human coronavirus (637 [5·0%]), and human metapneumovirus (615 [4·8%]). RSV and influenza virus had annual peaks in the north and biannual peaks in the south. Human parainfluenza virus and human bocavirus had higher positive rates in the spring–summer months. Human metapneumovirus had an annual peak in winter–spring, especially in the north. Adenovirus and human coronavirus exhibited no clear annual seasonality. Temperature, atmospheric pressure, vapour pressure, and rainfall had most explanatory power on most respiratory viruses in each region. Relative humidity was only dominant in the north, but had no significant explanatory power for most viruses in the south. Hours of sunlight had significant explanatory power for RSV and influenza virus in the north, and for most viruses in the south. Wind speed was the only factor with significant explanatory power for human coronavirus in the south. For all viruses, interactions between any two of the paired factors resulted in enhanced explanatory power, either bivariately or non-linearly. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity was detected for most viruses in this study, and interactions between pairs of meteorological factors were found to enhance their influence on virus variation. These findings might be helpful to guide government planning, such as public health interventions, infection control practice, and timing of passive immunoprophylaxis, and might facilitate the development of future vaccine strategies.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Prevalence and factors associated with overweight and obesity in selected health areas in a rural health district in Cameroon: a cross-sectional analysis},

author = {Simo, Larissa Pone and Agbor, Valirie Ndip and Temgoua, Francine Zeuga and Fozeu, Leo Cedric Fosso and Bonghaseh, Divine Tim and Mbonda, Aimé Gilbert Noula and Yurika, Raymond and Dotse-Gborgbortsi, Winfred and Mbanya, Dora},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10403-w},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-10},

urldate = {2023-03-10},

journal = {BMC Public Health},

volume = {21},

issue = {1},

abstract = {Overweight and obesity are major public health problems worldwide, with projections suggesting a proportional increase in the number of affected individuals in developing countries by the year 2030. Evidence-based preventive strategies are needed to reduce the burden of overweight and obesity in developing countries. We assessed the prevalence of, and factors associated with overweight and obesity in selected health areas in West Cameroon.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rice2021,

title = {Variation in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa},

author = {Benjamin L. Rice and Akshaya Annapragada and Rachel E. Baker and Marjolein Bruijning and Winfred Dotse-Gborgbortsi and Keitly Mensah and Ian F. Miller and Nkengafac Villyen Motaze and Antso Raherinandrasana and Malavika Rajeev and Julio Rakotonirina and Tanjona Ramiadantsoa and Fidisoa Rasambainarivo and Weiyu Yu and Bryan T. Grenfell and Andrew J. Tatem and C. Jessica E. Metcalf},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01234-8},

doi = {10.1038/s41591-021-01234-8},

issn = {1546-170X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-01},

journal = {Nature Medicine},

volume = {27},

number = {3},

pages = {447-453},

abstract = {A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments1, younger populations2--4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace and burden of this pandemic in SSA during the period from 25 February to 20 December 2020, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare capacity, intervention efforts and human mobility dimensions. Large diversity in the probable drivers indicates a need for caution in interpreting analyses that aggregate data across low- and middle-income settings. Our simulation shows that climatic variation between SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories; however, heterogeneity in connectivity, although rarely considered, is likely an important contributor to variance in the pace of viral spread across SSA. Our synthesis points to the potential benefits of context-specific adaptation of surveillance systems during the ongoing pandemic. In particular, characterizing patterns of severity over age will be a priority in settings with high comorbidity burdens and poor access to care. Understanding the spatial extent of outbreaks warrants emphasis in settings where low connectivity could drive prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks resulting in extended stress to health systems.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Tools for mapping multi-scale settlement patterns of building footprints: An introduction to the R package foot},

author = {Jochem, W. C. and Tatem, A. J.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247535},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-25},

urldate = {2021-02-25},

journal = {PLoS ONE},

volume = {16},

issue = {2},

abstract = {Spatial datasets of building footprint polygons are becoming more widely available and accessible for many areas in the world. These datasets are important inputs for a range of different analyses, such as understanding the development of cities, identifying areas at risk of disasters, and mapping the distribution of populations. The growth of high spatial resolution imagery and computing power is enabling automated procedures to extract and map building footprints for whole countries. These advances are enabling coverage of building footprint datasets for low and middle income countries which might lack other data on urban land uses. While spatially detailed, many building footprints lack information on structure type, local zoning, or land use, limiting their application. However, morphology metrics can be used to describe characteristics of size, shape, spacing, orientation and patterns of the structures and extract additional information which can be correlated with different structure and settlement types or neighbourhoods. We introduce the foot package, a new set of open-source tools in a flexible R package for calculating morphology metrics for building footprints and summarising them in different spatial scales and spatial representations. In particular our tools can create gridded (or raster) representations of morphology summary metrics which have not been widely supported previously. We demonstrate the tools by creating gridded morphology metrics from all building footprints in England, Scotland and Wales, and then use those layers in an unsupervised cluster analysis to derive a pattern-based settlement typology. We compare our mapped settlement types with two existing settlement classifications. The results suggest that building patterns can help distinguish different urban and rural types. However, intra-urban differences were not well-predicted by building morphology alone. More broadly, though, this case study demonstrates the potential of mapping settlement patterns in the absence of a housing census or other urban planning data.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities},

author = {Huang, Bo and Wang, Jionghua and Cai, Jixuan and Yao, Shiqi and Chan, Paul Kay Sheung and Tam, Tony Hong-wing and Hong, Ying-Yi and Ruktanonchai, Corrine W. and Carioli, Alessandra and Floyd, Jessica R. and Ruktanonchai, Nick W. and Yang, Weizhong and Li, Zhongjie and Tatem, Andrew J. and Lai, Shengjie},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-18},

urldate = {2021-02-18},

journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},

volume = {5},

pages = {695–705},

abstract = {The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city’s population density and social contact patterns.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {District-level estimation of vaccination coverage: Discrete vs continuous spatial models},

author = {Utazi, C. Edson and Nilsen, Kristine and Pannell, Oliver and Dotse-Gborgbortsi, Winfred and Tatem, Andrew J.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8897},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-04},

journal = {Statistics in Medicine},

volume = {40},

number = {9},

pages = {2197-2211},

abstract = {Health and development indicators (HDIs) such as vaccination coverage are regularly measured in many low- and middle-income countries using household surveys, often due to the unreliability or incompleteness of routine data collection systems. Recently, the development of model-based approaches for producing subnational estimates of HDIs using survey data, particularly cluster-level data, has been an active area of research. This is mostly driven by the increasing demand for estimates at certain administrative levels, for example, districts, at which many development goals are set and evaluated. In this study, we explore spatial modeling approaches for producing district-level estimates of vaccination coverage. Specifically, we compare discrete spatial smoothing models which directly model district-level data with continuous Gaussian process (GP) models that utilize geolocated cluster-level data. We adopt a fully Bayesian framework, implemented using the INLA and SPDE approaches. We compare the predictive performance of the models by analyzing vaccination coverage using data from two Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), namely the 2014 Kenya DHS and the 2015-16 Malawi DHS. We find that the continuous GP models performed well, offering a credible alternative to traditional discrete spatial smoothing models. Our analysis also revealed that accounting for between-cluster variation in the continuous GP models did not have any real effect on the district-level estimates. Our results provide guidance to practitioners on the reliability of these model-based approaches for producing estimates of vaccination coverage and other HDIs.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Vaccination strategies for measles control and elimination: time to strengthen local initiatives},

author = {F. T. Cutts and M. J. Ferrari and L. K. Krause and A. J. Tatem and J. F. Mosser},

url = {https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01843-z},

doi = {10.1186/s12916-020-01843-z},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-05},

journal = {BMC Med},

volume = {19},

issue = {2},

abstract = {Background

Through a combination of strong routine immunization (RI), strategic supplemental immunization activities (SIA) and robust surveillance, numerous countries have been able to approach or achieve measles elimination. The fragility of these achievements has been shown, however, by the resurgence of measles since 2016. We describe trends in routine measles vaccine coverage at national and district level, SIA performance and demographic changes in the three regions with the highest measles burden.



Findings

WHO-UNICEF estimates of immunization coverage show that global coverage of the first dose of measles vaccine has stabilized at 85% from 2015 to 19. In 2000, 17 countries in the WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions had measles vaccine coverage below 50%, and although all increased coverage by 2019, at a median of 60%, it remained far below levels needed for elimination. Geospatial estimates show many low coverage districts across Africa and much of the Eastern Mediterranean and southeast Asian regions. A large proportion of children unvaccinated for MCV live in conflict-affected areas with remote rural areas and some urban areas also at risk. Countries with low RI coverage use SIAs frequently, yet the ideal timing and target age range for SIAs vary within countries, and the impact of SIAs has often been mitigated by delays or disruptions. SIAs have not been sufficient to achieve or sustain measles elimination in the countries with weakest routine systems. Demographic changes also affect measles transmission, and their variation between and within countries should be incorporated into strategic planning.



Conclusions

Rebuilding services after the COVID-19 pandemic provides a need and an opportunity to increase community engagement in planning and monitoring services. A broader suite of interventions is needed beyond SIAs. Improved methods for tracking coverage at the individual and community level are needed together with enhanced surveillance. Decision-making needs to be decentralized to develop locally-driven, sustainable strategies for measles control and elimination.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = { Semi-automatic mapping of pre-census enumeration areas and population sampling frames},

author = {Sarchil Qader and Veronique Lefebvre and Andrew Tatem and Utz Pape and Kristen Himelein and Amy Ninneman and Linus Bengtsson and Tomas Bird },

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00670-0},

doi = {10.1057/s41599-020-00670-0},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-04},

urldate = {2021-01-04},

journal = {Humanit Soc Sci Commun},

volume = {8},

issue = {3},

abstract = {Enumeration Areas (EAs) are the operational geographic units for the collection and dissemination of census data and are often used as a national sampling frame for various types of surveys. In many poor or conflict-affected countries, EA demarcations are incomplete, outdated, or missing. Even for countries that are stable and prosperous, creating and updating EAs is one of the most challenging yet essential tasks in the preparation for a national census. Commonly, EAs are created by manually digitising small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or physically walking the boundaries of units, both of which are highly time, cost, and labour intensive. In addition, creating EAs requires considering population and area size within each unit. This is an optimisation problem that can best be solved by a computer. Here, for the first time, we produce a semi-automatic mapping of pre-defined census EAs based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement datasets and using publicly available natural and administrative boundaries. We demonstrate the approach in generating rural EAs for Somalia where such mapping is not existent. In addition, we compare our automated approach against manually digitised EAs created in urban areas of Mogadishu and Hargeysa. Our semi-automatically generated EAs are consistent with standard EAs, including having identifiable boundaries for field teams to follow on the ground, and appropriate sizing and population for coverage by an enumerator. Furthermore, our semi-automated urban EAs have no gaps, in contrast, to manually drawn urban EAs. Our work shows the time, labour and cost-saving value of automated EA delineation and points to the potential for broadly available tools suitable for low-income and data-poor settings but applicable to potentially wider contexts.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10.1371/journal.pone.0245297,

title = {The influence of travel time to health facilities on stillbirths: A geospatial case-control analysis of facility-based data in Gombe, Nigeria},

author = {Oghenebrume Wariri and Egwu Onuwabuchi and Jacob Albin Korem Alhassan and Eseoghene Dase and Iliya Jalo and Christopher Hassan Laima and Halima Usman Farouk and Aliyu U. El-Nafaty and Uduak Okomo and Winfred Dotse-Gborgbortsi},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245297},

doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0245297},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {PLOS ONE},

volume = {16},

number = {1},

pages = {1-18},

publisher = {Public Library of Science},

abstract = {Access to quality emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC); having a skilled attendant at birth (SBA); adequate antenatal care; and efficient referral systems are considered the most effective interventions in preventing stillbirths. We determined the influence of travel time from mother’s area of residence to a tertiary health facility where women sought care on the likelihood of delivering a stillbirth. We carried out a prospective matched case-control study between 1st January 2019 and 31st December 2019 at the Federal Teaching Hospital Gombe (FTHG), Nigeria. All women who experienced a stillbirth after hospital admission during the study period were included as cases while controls were consecutive age-matched (ratio 1:1) women who experienced a live birth. We modelled travel time to health facilities. To determine how travel time to the nearest health facility and the FTHG were predictive of the likelihood of stillbirths, we fitted a conditional logistic regression model. A total of 318 women, including 159 who had stillborn babies (cases) and 159 age-matched women who had live births (controls) were included. We did not observe any significant difference in the mean travel time to the nearest government health facility for women who had experienced a stillbirth compared to those who had a live birth [9.3 mins (SD 7.3, 11.2) vs 6.9 mins (SD 5.1, 8.7) respectively},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{PEZZULO2021e802,

title = {Geographical distribution of fertility rates in 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, 2010–16: a subnational analysis of cross-sectional surveys},

author = {Carla Pezzulo and Kristine Nilsen and Alessandra Carioli and Natalia Tejedor-Garavito and Sophie E Hanspal and Theodor Hilber and William H M James and Corrine W Ruktanonchai and Victor Alegana and Alessandro Sorichetta and Adelle S Wigley and Graeme M Hornby and Zoe Matthews and Andrew J Tatem},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X21000826},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00082-6},

issn = {2214-109X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {The Lancet Global Health},

volume = {9},

number = {6},

pages = {e802-e812},

abstract = {Summary 

Background 

Understanding subnational variation in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs), and geographical clustering of high fertility and its determinants in low-income and middle-income countries, is increasingly needed for geographical targeting and prioritising of policy. We aimed to identify variation in fertility rates, to describe patterns of key selected fertility determinants in areas of high fertility. 

Methods 

We did a subnational analysis of ASFRs and TFRs from the most recent publicly available and nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys collected between 2010 and 2016 for 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, across 932 administrative units. We assessed the degree of global spatial autocorrelation by using Moran's I statistic and did a spatial cluster analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi* local statistic to examine the geographical clustering of fertility and key selected fertility determinants. Descriptive analysis was used to investigate the distribution of ASFRs and of selected determinants in each cluster. 

Findings 

TFR varied from below replacement (2·1 children per women) in 36 of the 932 subnational regions (mainly located in India, Myanmar, Colombia, and Armenia), to rates of 8 and higher in 14 subnational regions, located in sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan. Areas with high-fertility clusters were mostly associated with areas of low prevalence of women with secondary or higher education, low use of contraception, and high unmet needs for family planning, although exceptions existed. 

Interpretation 

Substantial within-country variation in the distribution of fertility rates highlights the need for tailored programmes and strategies in high-fertility cluster areas to increase the use of contraception and access to secondary education, and to reduce unmet need for family planning. 

Funding 

Wellcome Trust, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi:10.1177/2399808320921208,

title = {Classifying settlement types from multi-scale spatial patterns of building footprints},

author = {Warren C Jochem and Douglas R Leasure and Oliver Pannell and Heather R Chamberlain and Patricia Jones and Andrew J Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808320921208},

doi = {10.1177/2399808320921208},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science},

volume = {48},

number = {5},

pages = {1161-1179},

abstract = {Urban settlements and urbanised populations continue to grow rapidly and much of this transition is occurring in less developed countries. Remote sensing techniques are now often applied to monitor urbanisation and changes in settlement patterns. In particular, increasing availability of very high resolution imagery (<1 m spatial resolution) and computing power is enabling complete sets of settlement data in the form of building footprints to be extracted from imagery. These settlement data provide information on the changes occurring in cities, particularly in countries which may lack other data on urbanisation. While spatially detailed, extracted building footprints typically lack other information that identify building types or can be used to differentiate intra-urban land uses or neighbourhood types. This work demonstrates an approach to classifying settlement types through multi-scale spatial patterns of urban morphology visible in building footprint data extracted from very high resolution imagery. The work uses a Gaussian mixture modelling approach to select and hierarchically merge components into clusters. The results are maps classifying settlement types on a high spatial resolution (100 m) grid. The approach is applied in Kaduna, Nigeria; Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; and Maputo, Mozambique and demonstrates the potential of computational methods to take advantage of large spatial datasets and extract meaningful information to support monitoring of urban areas. The model-based approach produces a hierarchy of potential clustering solutions, and we suggest that this can be used in partnership with local knowledge of the context when creating settlement typologies.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Thomson2020,

title = {Gridded population survey sampling: a systematic scoping review of the field and strategic research agenda},

author = {Dana R. Thomson and Dale A. Rhoda and Andrew J. Tatem and Marcia C. Castro},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-020-00230-4},

doi = {10.1186/s12942-020-00230-4},

issn = {1476-072X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-09-09},

journal = {International Journal of Health Geographics},

volume = {19},

number = {1},

pages = {34},

abstract = {In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household survey data are a main source of information for planning, evaluation, and decision-making. Standard surveys are based on censuses, however, for many LMICs it has been more than 10 years since their last census and they face high urban growth rates. Over the last decade, survey designers have begun to use modelled gridded population estimates as sample frames. We summarize the state of the emerging field of gridded population survey sampling, focussing on LMICs.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wigley2020,

title = {Measuring the availability and geographical accessibility of maternal health services across sub-Saharan Africa},

author = {A. S. Wigley and N. Tejedor-Garavito and V. Alegana and A. Carioli and C. W. Ruktanonchai and C. Pezzulo and Z. Matthews and A. J. Tatem and K. Nilsen},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01707-6},

doi = {10.1186/s12916-020-01707-6},

issn = {1741-7015},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-09-08},

journal = {BMC Medicine},

volume = {18},

number = {1},

pages = {237},

abstract = {With universal health coverage a key component of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, targeted monitoring is crucial for reducing inequalities in the provision of services. However, monitoring largely occurs at the national level, masking sub-national variation. Here, we estimate indicators for measuring the availability and geographical accessibility of services, at national and sub-national levels across sub-Saharan Africa, to show how data at varying spatial scales and input data can considerably impact monitoring outcomes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}