@article{Lai2016,

title = {Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China and its mortality: an analysis of driving factors},

author = {Shengjie Lai and Nicola A. Wardrop and Zhuojie Huang and Claudio Bosco and Junling Sun and Tomas Bird and Amy Wesolowski and Sheng Zhou and Qian Zhang and Canjun Zheng and Zhongjie Li and Andrew J. Tatem and Hongjie Yu},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39524},

doi = {10.1038/srep39524},

issn = {2045-2322},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-12-21},

journal = {Scientific Reports},

volume = {6},

number = {1},

pages = {39524},

abstract = {Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China is rising with increasing Chinese overseas investment and international travel. Identifying networks and drivers of this phenomenon as well as the contributors to high case-fatality rate is a growing public health concern to enable efficient response. From 2011--2015, 8653thinspaceP. falciparum cases leading to 98 deaths (11.3 per 1000 cases) were imported from 41 sub-Saharan countries into China, with most cases (91.3%) occurring in labour-related Chinese travellers. Four strongly connected groupings of origin African countries with destination Chinese provinces were identified, and the number of imported cases was significantly associated with the volume of air passengers to China (Pthinspace=thinspace0.006), parasite prevalence in Africa (Pthinspace<thinspace0.001), and the amount of official development assistance from China (Pthinspace<thinspace0.001) with investment in resource extraction having the strongest relationship with parasite importation. Risk factors for deaths from imported cases were related to the capacity of malaria diagnosis and diverse socioeconomic factors. The spatial heterogeneity uncovered, principal drivers explored, and risk factors for mortality found in the rising rates of P. falciparum malaria importation to China can serve to refine malaria elimination strategies and the management of cases, and high risk groups and regions should be targeted.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Alegana2016b,

title = {Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vector density from baseline through intervention in a high transmission setting},

author = {Victor A. Alegana and Simon P. Kigozi and Joaniter Nankabirwa and Emmanuel Arinaitwe and Ruth Kigozi and Henry Mawejje and Maxwell Kilama and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Corrine W. Ruktanonchai and Chris Drakeley and Steve W. Lindsay and Bryan Greenhouse and Moses R. Kamya and David L. Smith and Peter M. Atkinson and Grant Dorsey and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-016-1917-3},

doi = {10.1186/s13071-016-1917-3},

issn = {1756-3305},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-12-12},

journal = {Parasites & Vectors},

volume = {9},

number = {1},

pages = {637},

abstract = {An increase in effective malaria control since 2000 has contributed to a decline in global malaria morbidity and mortality. Knowing when and how existing interventions could be combined to maximise their impact on malaria vectors can provide valuable information for national malaria control programs in different malaria endemic settings. Here, we assess the effect of indoor residual spraying on malaria vector densities in a high malaria endemic setting in eastern Uganda as part of a cohort study where the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) was high.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{zuErbach-Schoenberg2016,

title = {Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates},

author = {Elisabeth Erbach-Schoenberg and Victor A. Alegana and Alessandro Sorichetta and Catherine Linard and Christoper Lourenço and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Bonita Graupe and Tomas J. Bird and Carla Pezzulo and Amy Wesolowski and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-016-0106-0},

doi = {10.1186/s12963-016-0106-0},

issn = {1478-7954},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-10-12},

journal = {Population Health Metrics},

volume = {14},

number = {1},

pages = {35},

abstract = {Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bharti2016,

title = {Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage},

author = {Nita Bharti and Ali Djibo and Andrew J. Tatem and Bryan T. Grenfell and Matthew J. Ferrari},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34541},

doi = {10.1038/srep34541},

issn = {2045-2322},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-10-05},

journal = {Scientific Reports},

volume = {6},

number = {1},

pages = {34541},

abstract = {In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lu2016,

title = {Detecting climate adaptation with mobile network data in Bangladesh: anomalies in communication, mobility and consumption patterns during cyclone Mahasen},

author = {Xin Lu and David J. Wrathall and Pål Roe Sundsøy and Md. Nadiruzzaman and Erik Wetter and Asif Iqbal and Taimur Qureshi and Andrew J. Tatem and Geoffrey S. Canright and Kenth Engø-Monsen and Linus Bengtsson},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1753-7},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1753-7},

issn = {1573-1480},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-10-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {138},

number = {3},

pages = {505-519},

abstract = {Large-scale data from digital infrastructure, like mobile phone networks, provides rich information on the behavior of millions of people in areas affected by climate stress. Using anonymized data on mobility and calling behavior from 5.1 million Grameenphone users in Barisal Division and Chittagong District, Bangladesh, we investigate the effect of Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Barisal and Chittagong in May 2013. We characterize spatiotemporal patterns and anomalies in calling frequency, mobile recharges, and population movements before, during and after the cyclone. While it was originally anticipated that the analysis might detect mass evacuations and displacement from coastal areas in the weeks following the storm, no evidence was found to suggest any permanent changes in population distributions. We detect anomalous patterns of mobility both around the time of early warning messages and the storm's landfall, showing where and when mobility occurred as well as its characteristics. We find that anomalous patterns of mobility and calling frequency correlate with rainfall intensity (r = .75, p < 0.05) and use calling frequency to construct a spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone impact as the storm moves across the affected region. Likewise, from mobile recharge purchases we show the spatiotemporal patterns in people's preparation for the storm in vulnerable areas. In addition to demonstrating how anomaly detection can be useful for modeling human adaptation to climate extremes, we also identify several promising avenues for future improvement of disaster planning and response activities.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Armstrong2016,

title = {Subnational variation for care at birth in Tanzania: is this explained by place, people, money or drugs?},

author = {Corinne E. Armstrong and Melisa Martínez-Álvarez and Neha S. Singh and Theopista John and Hoviyeh Afnan-Holmes and Chris Grundy and Corrine W. Ruktanochai and Josephine Borghi and Moke Magoma and Georgina Msemo and Zoe Matthews and Gemini Mtei and Joy E. Lawn},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3404-3},

doi = {10.1186/s12889-016-3404-3},

issn = {1471-2458},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-09-12},

journal = {BMC Public Health},

volume = {16},

number = {2},

pages = {795},

abstract = {Tanzania achieved the Millennium Development Goal for child survival, yet made insufficient progress for maternal and neonatal survival and stillbirths, due to low coverage and quality of services for care at birth, with rural women left behind. Our study aimed to evaluate Tanzania's subnational (regional-level) variations for rural care at birth outcomes, i.e., rural women giving birth in a facility and by Caesarean section (C-section), and associations with health systems inputs (financing, health workforce, facilities, and commodities), outputs (readiness and quality of care) and context (education and GDP).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Neal2016,

title = {Mapping adolescent first births within three east African countries using data from Demographic and Health Surveys: exploring geospatial methods to inform policy},

author = {Sarah Neal and Corrine Ruktanonchai and Venkatraman Chandra-Mouli and Zo"e Matthews and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-016-0205-1},

doi = {10.1186/s12978-016-0205-1},

issn = {1742-4755},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-08-23},

journal = {Reproductive Health},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {98},

abstract = {Early adolescent pregnancy presents a major barrier to the health and wellbeing of young women and their children. Previous studies suggest geographic heterogeneity in adolescent births, with clear ``hot spots'' experiencing very high prevalence of teenage pregnancy. As the reduction of adolescent pregnancy is a priority in many countries, further detailed information of the geographical areas where they most commonly occur is of value to national and district level policy makers. The aim of this study is to develop a comprehensive assessment of the geographical distribution of adolescent first births in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania using Demographic and Household (DHS) data using descriptive, spatial analysis and spatial modelling methods.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Early2016,

title = {Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities},

author = {Regan Early and Bethany A. Bradley and Jeffrey S. Dukes and Joshua J. Lawler and Julian D. Olden and Dana M. Blumenthal and Patrick Gonzalez and Edwin D. Grosholz and Ines Ibañez and Luke P. Miller and Cascade J. B. Sorte and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12485},

doi = {10.1038/ncomms12485},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-08-23},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {7},

number = {1},

pages = {12485},

abstract = {Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sorichetta2016,

title = {Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries},

author = {Alessandro Sorichetta and Tom J. Bird and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Elisabeth Erbach-Schoenberg and Carla Pezzulo and Natalia Tejedor and Ian C. Waldock and Jason D. Sadler and Andres J. Garcia and Luigi Sedda and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.66},

doi = {10.1038/sdata.2016.66},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-08-16},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {3},

number = {1},

pages = {160066},

abstract = {Human mobility continues to increase in terms of volumes and reach, producing growing global connectivity. This connectivity hampers efforts to eliminate infectious diseases such as malaria through reintroductions of pathogens, and thus accounting for it becomes important in designing global, continental, regional, and national strategies. Recent works have shown that census-derived migration data provides a good proxy for internal connectivity, in terms of relative strengths of movement between administrative units, across temporal scales. To support global malaria eradication strategy efforts, here we describe the construction of an open access archive of estimated internal migration flows in endemic countries built through pooling of census microdata. These connectivity datasets, described here along with the approaches and methods used to create and validate them, are available both through the WorldPop website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Perkins2016,

title = {Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas},

author = {T. Alex Perkins and Amir S. Siraj and Corrine W. Ruktanonchai and Moritz U. G. Kraemer and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nmicrobiol.2016.126},

doi = {10.1038/nmicrobiol.2016.126},

issn = {2058-5276},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-07-25},

journal = {Nature Microbiology},

volume = {1},

number = {9},

pages = {16126},

abstract = {Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that is rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to associations between Zika virus infection and a range of fetal maladies1,2, the epidemic trajectory of this viral infection poses a significant concern for the nearly 15 million children born in the Americas each year. Ascertaining the portion of this population that is truly at risk is an important priority. One recent estimate3 suggested that 5.42 million childbearing women live in areas of the Americas that are suitable for Zika occurrence. To improve on that estimate, which did not take into account the protective effects of herd immunity, we developed a new approach that combines classic results from epidemiological theory with seroprevalence data and highly spatially resolved data about drivers of transmission to make location-specific projections of epidemic attack rates. Our results suggest that 1.65 (1.45--2.06) million childbearing women and 93.4 (81.6--117.1) million people in total could become infected before the first wave of the epidemic concludes. Based on current estimates of rates of adverse fetal outcomes among infected women2,4,5, these results suggest that tens of thousands of pregnancies could be negatively impacted by the first wave of the epidemic. These projections constitute a revised upper limit of populations at risk in the current Zika epidemic, and our approach offers a new way to make rapid assessments of the threat posed by emerging infectious diseases more generally.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Alegana2016,

title = {Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence},

author = {Victor A. Alegana and Peter M. Atkinson and Christopher Lourenço and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Claudio Bosco and Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg and Bradley Didier and Deepa Pindolia and Arnaud Le Menach and Stark Katokele and Petrina Uusiku and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29628},

doi = {10.1038/srep29628},

issn = {2045-2322},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-07-13},

journal = {Scientific Reports},

volume = {6},

number = {1},

pages = {29628},

abstract = {The long-term goal of the global effort to tackle malaria is national and regional elimination and eventually eradication. Fine scale multi-temporal mapping in low malaria transmission settings remains a challenge and the World Health Organisation propose use of surveillance in elimination settings. Here, we show how malaria incidence can be modelled at a fine spatial and temporal resolution from health facility data to help focus surveillance and control to population not attending health facilities. Using Namibia as a case study, we predicted the incidence of malaria, via a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, at a fine spatial resolution from parasitologically confirmed malaria cases and incorporated metrics on healthcare use as well as measures of uncertainty associated with incidence predictions. We then combined the incidence estimates with population maps to estimate clinical burdens and show the benefits of such mapping to identifying areas and seasons that can be targeted for improved surveillance and interventions. Fine spatial resolution maps produced using this approach were then used to target resources to specific local populations, and to specific months of the season. This remote targeting can be especially effective where the population distribution is sparse and further surveillance can be limited to specific local areas.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Ruktanonchai2016,

title = {Census-derived migration data as a tool for informing malaria elimination policy},

author = {Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Darlene Bhavnani and Alessandro Sorichetta and Linus Bengtsson and Keith H. Carter and Roberto C. Córdoba and Arnaud Le Menach and Xin Lu and Erik Wetter and Elisabeth Erbach-Schoenberg and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-016-1315-5},

doi = {10.1186/s12936-016-1315-5},

issn = {1475-2875},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-05-11},

journal = {Malaria Journal},

volume = {15},

number = {1},

pages = {273},

abstract = {Numerous countries around the world are approaching malaria elimination. Until global eradication is achieved, countries that successfully eliminate the disease will contend with parasite reintroduction through international movement of infected people. Human-mediated parasite mobility is also important within countries near elimination, as it drives parasite flows that affect disease transmission on a subnational scale.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10.7554/eLife.15272,

title = {Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus},

author = {Jane P Messina and Moritz UG Kraemer and Oliver J Brady and David M Pigott and Freya M Shearer and Daniel J Weiss and Nick Golding and Corrine W Ruktanonchai and Peter W Gething and Emily Cohn and John S Brownstein and Kamran Khan and Andrew J Tatem and Thomas Jaenisch and Christopher JL Murray and Fatima Marinho and Thomas W Scott and Simon I Hay},

editor = {Mark Jit},

url = {https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.15272},

doi = {10.7554/eLife.15272},

issn = {2050-084X},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-04-01},

journal = {eLife},

volume = {5},

pages = {e15272},

publisher = {eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd},

abstract = {Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.},

keywords = {disease mapping, vector-borne disease, Zika virus},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhao2016,

title = {Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe},

author = {Xia Zhao and David L. Smith and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-016-1175-z},

doi = {10.1186/s12936-016-1175-z},

issn = {1475-2875},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-03-04},

journal = {Malaria Journal},

volume = {15},

number = {1},

pages = {122},

abstract = {Europe once had widespread malaria, but today it is free from endemic transmission. Changing land use, agricultural practices, housing quality, urbanization, climate change, and improved healthcare are among the many factors thought to have played a role in the declines of malaria seen, but their effects and relative contributions have rarely been quantified.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Gaughan2016,

title = {Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010},

author = {Andrea E. Gaughan and Forrest R. Stevens and Zhuojie Huang and Jeremiah J. Nieves and Alessandro Sorichetta and Shengjie Lai and Xinyue Ye and Catherine Linard and Graeme M. Hornby and Simon I. Hay and Hongjie Yu and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.5},

doi = {10.1038/sdata.2016.5},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-02-16},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {3},

number = {1},

pages = {160005},

abstract = {According to UN forecasts, global population will increase to over 8 billion by 2025, with much of this anticipated population growth expected in urban areas. In China, the scale of urbanization has, and continues to be, unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate of change. Since the late 1970s, the percentage of Chinese living in urban areas increased from textasciitilde18% to over 50%. To quantify these patterns spatially we use time-invariant or temporally-explicit data, including census data for 1990, 2000, and 2010 in an ensemble prediction model. Resulting multi-temporal, gridded population datasets are unique in terms of granularity and extent, providing fine-scale (textasciitilde100thinspacem) patterns of population distribution for mainland China. For consistency purposes, the Tibet Autonomous Region, Taiwan, and the islands in the South China Sea were excluded. The statistical model and considerations for temporally comparable maps are described, along with the resulting datasets. Final, mainland China population maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are freely available as products from the WorldPop Project website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{LU20161,

title = {Unveiling hidden migration and mobility patterns in climate stressed regions: A longitudinal study of six million anonymous mobile phone users in Bangladesh},

author = {Xin Lu and David J. Wrathall and Pål Roe Sundsøy and Md. Nadiruzzaman and Erik Wetter and Asif Iqbal and Taimur Qureshi and Andrew Tatem and Geoffrey Canright and Kenth Engø-Monsen and Linus Bengtsson},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300140},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.002},

issn = {0959-3780},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Global Environmental Change},

volume = {38},

pages = {1-7},

abstract = {Climate change is likely to drive migration from environmentally stressed areas. However quantifying short and long-term movements across large areas is challenging due to difficulties in the collection of highly spatially and temporally resolved human mobility data. In this study we use two datasets of individual mobility trajectories from six million de-identified mobile phone users in Bangladesh over three months and two years respectively. Using data collected during Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Bangladesh in May 2013, we show first how analyses based on mobile network data can describe important short-term features (hours–weeks) of human mobility during and after extreme weather events, which are extremely hard to quantify using standard survey based research. We then demonstrate how mobile data for the first time allow us to study the relationship between fundamental parameters of migration patterns on a national scale. We concurrently quantify incidence, direction, duration and seasonality of migration episodes in Bangladesh. While we show that changes in the incidence of migration episodes are highly correlated with changes in the duration of migration episodes, the correlation between in- and out-migration between areas is unexpectedly weak. The methodological framework described here provides an important addition to current methods in studies of human migration and climate change.},

keywords = {Adaptation, Bangladesh, Climate change, Disaster, Migration, Mobile data},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{UTAZI2016161,

title = {A probabilistic predictive Bayesian approach for determining the representativeness of health and demographic surveillance networks},

author = {C. Edson Utazi and Sujit K. Sahu and Peter M. Atkinson and Natalia Tejedor and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211675316300240},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2016.05.006},

issn = {2211-6753},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Spatial Statistics},

volume = {17},

pages = {161-178},

abstract = {Health and demographic surveillance systems, formed into networks of sites, are increasingly being established to circumvent unreliable national civil registration systems for estimates of mortality and its determinants in low income countries. Health outcomes, as measured by morbidity and mortality, generally correlate strongly with socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. Therefore, to enable comparison between sites, understand which sites can be grouped and where additional sites would aid understanding of rates and determinants, determining the environmental and socioeconomic representativeness of networks becomes important. This paper proposes a full Bayesian methodology for assessing current representativeness and consequently, identification of future sites, focusing on the INDEPTH network in sub-Saharan Africa as an example. Using socioeconomic and environmental data from the current network of 39 sites, we develop a multi-dimensional finite Gaussian mixture model for clustering the existing sites. Using the fitted model we obtain the posterior predictive probability distribution for cluster membership of each 1×1 km grid cell in Africa. The maximum of the posterior predictive probability distribution for each grid cell is proposed as the criterion for representativeness of the network for that particular grid cell. We demonstrate the conceptual superiority and practical appeal of the proposed Bayesian probabilistic method over previously applied deterministic clustering methods. As an example of the potential utility and application of the method, we also suggest optimal site selection methods for possible additions to the network.},

keywords = {Bayesian inference, BIC, Central clustering, Finite Gaussian mixture model, Gibbs sampling, Predictive clustering},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10.1371/journal.pone.0162006,

title = {Equality in Maternal and Newborn Health: Modelling Geographic Disparities in Utilisation of Care in Five East African Countries},

author = {Corrine W. Ruktanonchai and Nick W. Ruktanonchai and Andrea Nove and Sofia Lopes and Carla Pezzulo and Claudio Bosco and Victor A. Alegana and Clara R. Burgert and Rogers Ayiko and Andrew SEK Charles and Nkurunziza Lambert and Esther Msechu and Esther Kathini and Zoë Matthews and Andrew J. Tatem},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0162006},

doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0162006},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {PLOS ONE},

volume = {11},

number = {8},

pages = {1-17},

publisher = {Public Library of Science},

abstract = {Background Geographic accessibility to health facilities represents a fundamental barrier to utilisation of maternal and newborn health (MNH) services, driving historically hidden spatial pockets of localized inequalities. Here, we examine utilisation of MNH care as an emergent property of accessibility, highlighting high-resolution spatial heterogeneity and sub-national inequalities in receiving care before, during, and after delivery throughout five East African countries. Methods We calculated a geographic inaccessibility score to the nearest health facility at 300 x 300 m using a dataset of 9,314 facilities throughout Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Using Demographic and Health Surveys data, we utilised hierarchical mixed effects logistic regression to examine the odds of: 1) skilled birth attendance, 2) receiving 4+ antenatal care visits at time of delivery, and 3) receiving a postnatal health check-up within 48 hours of delivery. We applied model results onto the accessibility surface to visualise the probabilities of obtaining MNH care at both high-resolution and sub-national levels after adjusting for live births in 2015. Results Across all outcomes, decreasing wealth and education levels were associated with lower odds of obtaining MNH care. Increasing geographic inaccessibility scores were associated with the strongest effect in lowering odds of obtaining care observed across outcomes, with the widest disparities observed among skilled birth attendance. Specifically, for each increase in the inaccessibility score to the nearest health facility, the odds of having skilled birth attendance at delivery was reduced by over 75% (0.24; CI: 0.19–0.3), while the odds of receiving antenatal care decreased by nearly 25% (0.74; CI: 0.61–0.89) and 40% for obtaining postnatal care (0.58; CI: 0.45–0.75). Conclusions Overall, these results suggest decreasing accessibility to the nearest health facility significantly deterred utilisation of all maternal health care services. These results demonstrate how spatial approaches can inform policy efforts and promote evidence-based decision-making, and are particularly pertinent as the world shifts into the Sustainable Goals Development era, where sub-national applications will become increasingly useful in identifying and reducing persistent inequalities.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi:10.1098/rsif.2015.1101,

title = {Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination},

author = {Amy Wesolowski and Keitly Mensah and Cara E. Brook and Miora Andrianjafimasy and Amy Winter and Caroline O. Buckee and Richter Razafindratsimandresy and Andrew J. Tatem and Jean-Michel Heraud and C. Jessica E. Metcalf},

url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rsif.2015.1101},

doi = {10.1098/rsif.2015.1101},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Journal of The Royal Society Interface},

volume = {13},

number = {117},

pages = {20151101},

abstract = {Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}